TonyK
CibbuanoGrand Final preview: Sydney v West Coast
September 30th 2006 00:28
SYDNEY SWANS V WEST COAST
WHERE & WHEN: MCG, 2:30pm, Saturday, September 30, 2006
TV & RADIO: Channel 10. 3AW, ABC National, K-Rock, Triple M, 5AA, 6PR, NIRS
HEAD TO HEAD: Played - 34, Sydney Swans - 18, West Coast - 16
LAST TIME: Sydney Swans 13.7 (85) def. West Coast 12.12 (84), 2006 second qualifying final at Subiaco Oval.
FINALS HEAD TO HEAD: Played - 4, Sydney - 3, West Coast - 1
LAST TIME IN A FINAL: Sydney Swans 13.7 (85) def. West Coast 12.12 (84), 2006 second qualifying final at Subiaco Oval
HEAD TO HEAD AT THIS VENUE: Played - 1, Sydney - 1, West Coast - 0
LAST TIME AT THIS VENUE: Sydney 8.10 (58) def West Coast 7.12 (54), 2005 AFL Grand Final.
TAB SPORTSBET: Sydney $2.03, West Coast $1.75
BETFAIR: Sydney $2.16, West Coast $1.85
Twelve months on and the two combatants for this year's grand final haven't changed.
But the fortunes of West Coast and Sydney couldn't be anymore different.
The Eagles, much like the Swans of 2005 have had to take the long route to reach the last Saturday in September, having played three games in consecutive weeks.
The one-point loss to Sydney in the qualifying final has proven to be a blessing in disguise for John Worsfold's men, with key players Daniel Kerr, Andrew Embley and Ashley Hansen gaining some much needed match-fitness in the past fortnight.
Compared to last year West Coast seem to be a settled and complete outfit, with classy defender David Wirrapanda the only inclusion at the expense of this year's hard-luck story Jaymie Graham.
More importantly the Eagles have a genuine target up forward in Quinten Lynch after the failed experiment of Michael Gardiner in last year's premiership decider.
The big-unit has booted more than 60 goals this year and will desperate to shine on the biggest stage after the heartache of being dropped for last year's grand final due to poor form.
Lynch's battle with 2005 grand final hero Leo Barry looms as a key.
Barry faced an underdone Gardiner last year, but this week shapes as a different prospect with the Eagles forward holding onto his grabs and full of confidence.
Hansen is another key for West Coast, and his importance is underlined by the fact that the Eagles have won all 14 games that the 23-year-old has been a part of.
You would expect Swans defender Lewis Roberts-Thomson to be assigned the task of minding Hansen.
The Sydney defender was comprehensively beaten by Fremantle's Matthew Pavlich in last Friday night's preliminary final, but Hansen is a different prospect as more of a hit-up target which should suit Thomson.
The midfield battle again looms as a key.
All-Australian ruckman Dean Cox will face new father Darren Jolly, and how big of an impact, positive or negative the arrival of Jolly's first daughter has on the Swans big man remains to be seen.
Both ruckman are evenly matched in terms of hitouts, with Jolly averaging 25 per game compared to Cox's 20.
However, it is the Eagles ruckman's ability around the ground as another midfielder, averaging over 18 possessions a game compared to Jolly's eight touches that would be of concern.
There are plenty of intriguing battles in the midfield, but none more so than the likely match-up of Eagles skipper Chris Judd and dual Brownlow medallist Adam Goodes.
The star duo lined up on each other in round 15, with Judd slightly getting the honours in the eyes of the umpires with three votes with Goodes getting the two.
Will coach Paul Roos back his star in, or will Luke Ablett be given first choice of tagging the Eagles gun.
The latter seems to be the obvious option, as the Swans can't afford to go into a shootout against the much vaunted West Coast midfield.
Jarrad McVeigh, who didn't play in last year's grand final should take former skipper Ben Cousins after restricting the 2005 Brownlow medallist to 19 possessions-well below his season average of 25.
Tough midfielder Daniel Kerr looms as the X-factor in today's grand final.
Kerr hasn't played against the Swans this year and struggled in last year's grand final with injury.
The 23-year-old illustrated his importance to the side in the past fortnight, collecting 29 and 25 possessions respectively.
There has been speculation that Kerr might not take his place in the side, after leaving the MCG early yesterday but according to club officials he is just being kept fresh after suffering a calf injury against Brisbane over a month ago and you would expect him to take his place in the 22.
Fellow tough-nut and Swans co-captain Brett Kirk appears to be the obvious choice to be assigned the task of minding Kerr in another intriguing midfield match-up.
This year's grand final will be won or lost between the Eagles midfield which has no peer in the competition up against the Swans potent forward line.
The Sydney forwards have been in devastating form in their past two outings, and this was no more evident than against the Dockers with Barry Hall, Michael O'Loughlin and the much-improved Ryan O'Keefe combining for 14 of their sides 19 goals.
All-Australian full-back Darren Glass will line-up on Hall, while you would expect Adam Hunter to take the mercurial O'Loughlin should he start back.
The versatile Daniel Chick could be another option for Worsfold should he opt to start Hunter forward.
Logic suggests Hunter will start back, and attempt to run O'Loughlin off his feet in a similiar vein to what he did to Western Bulldogs veteran Chris Grant a fortnight ago.
How well Glass and Hunter do in quelling the influence of Hall and O'Loughlin will be crucial to determining the outcome.
The West Coast defenders lacked any support the last time these two sides met, allowing the Sydney forwards to run into space as Hall and O'Loughlin combined for nine of their sides 13 goals.
The MCG is shorter than Subiaco Oval, and I wouldn't be suprised if Worsfold opts to use Wirrapanda or veteran Drew Banfield as a loose man in defence to give support to Glass.
While Hall and O'Loughlin get the bulk of the attention, West Coast need to be mindful of O'Keefe.
Adam Selwood looks to be the likely match-up for O'Keefe, having done a servicable job on Brad Johnson two weeks ago.
However, if coach Paul Roos opts to push the All-Australian forward into the goal square, Selwood could find himself wanting after being beaten by Brett Burton last Saturday.
The Swans are the masters of stoppages, and will attempt to shut down the run of the West Coast midfield and rely on the power forwards to kick them a winning score.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have adopted the spirit of Barassi in recent times.
Since round 17 West Coast have won seven matches, averaging 196 handballs.
In the two games they have lost in that period they have averaged 139 handballs, with their lowest total coming against the Swans.
Put simply the Eagles will attempt to run Sydney off their feet and break the game open and allow the likes of Lynch and Hansen to lead into space in front of goal.
If history is anything to go by, matches between these two sides go down to the last minute, with their past four encounters having been decided by a combined total of 11 points.
Today's grand final promises to be another classic enounter.
However, West Coast are a vastly improved side on the 2005 version, with the addition of Lynch up forward and Kerr to play a bigger role coupled with the heartbreak of last year's four-point loss the Eagles should just get over the line in a classic. West Coast by 8 points.
SYDNEY
B: Richards, Barry, Malceski
HB: Kennelly, Roberts-Thomson, C.Bolton
C: Buchanan, Kirk, Ablett
HF: O'Keefe, O'Loughlin, J.Bolton
F: Schneider, Hall, Fosdike
FOLL: Jolly, Goodes, McVeigh
I/C: Mathews, N.Davis, Dempster, Doyle
EMG: Spriggs, Bevan, Vogels
IN: -
OUT: -
WEST COAST
B: Wirrpanda, Glass, Selwood
HB: Waters, Hunter, B.Jones
C: A.Embley, Cousins, Braun
HF: Chick, Hansen, Stenglein
F: Armstrong, Lynch, Seaby
FOLL: Cox, Judd, Kerr
I/C: Banfield, Butler, Fletcher, R.Jones
EMG: Graham, Rosa, Staker
IN: Wirrpanda
OUT: Graham
Field umpires: Allen, Goldspink, Vozzo
WHERE & WHEN: MCG, 2:30pm, Saturday, September 30, 2006
TV & RADIO: Channel 10. 3AW, ABC National, K-Rock, Triple M, 5AA, 6PR, NIRS
HEAD TO HEAD: Played - 34, Sydney Swans - 18, West Coast - 16
LAST TIME: Sydney Swans 13.7 (85) def. West Coast 12.12 (84), 2006 second qualifying final at Subiaco Oval.
FINALS HEAD TO HEAD: Played - 4, Sydney - 3, West Coast - 1
LAST TIME IN A FINAL: Sydney Swans 13.7 (85) def. West Coast 12.12 (84), 2006 second qualifying final at Subiaco Oval
HEAD TO HEAD AT THIS VENUE: Played - 1, Sydney - 1, West Coast - 0
LAST TIME AT THIS VENUE: Sydney 8.10 (58) def West Coast 7.12 (54), 2005 AFL Grand Final.
TAB SPORTSBET: Sydney $2.03, West Coast $1.75
BETFAIR: Sydney $2.16, West Coast $1.85
Twelve months on and the two combatants for this year's grand final haven't changed.
But the fortunes of West Coast and Sydney couldn't be anymore different.
The Eagles, much like the Swans of 2005 have had to take the long route to reach the last Saturday in September, having played three games in consecutive weeks.
The one-point loss to Sydney in the qualifying final has proven to be a blessing in disguise for John Worsfold's men, with key players Daniel Kerr, Andrew Embley and Ashley Hansen gaining some much needed match-fitness in the past fortnight.
Compared to last year West Coast seem to be a settled and complete outfit, with classy defender David Wirrapanda the only inclusion at the expense of this year's hard-luck story Jaymie Graham.
More importantly the Eagles have a genuine target up forward in Quinten Lynch after the failed experiment of Michael Gardiner in last year's premiership decider.
The big-unit has booted more than 60 goals this year and will desperate to shine on the biggest stage after the heartache of being dropped for last year's grand final due to poor form.
Lynch's battle with 2005 grand final hero Leo Barry looms as a key.
Barry faced an underdone Gardiner last year, but this week shapes as a different prospect with the Eagles forward holding onto his grabs and full of confidence.
Hansen is another key for West Coast, and his importance is underlined by the fact that the Eagles have won all 14 games that the 23-year-old has been a part of.
You would expect Swans defender Lewis Roberts-Thomson to be assigned the task of minding Hansen.
The Sydney defender was comprehensively beaten by Fremantle's Matthew Pavlich in last Friday night's preliminary final, but Hansen is a different prospect as more of a hit-up target which should suit Thomson.
The midfield battle again looms as a key.
All-Australian ruckman Dean Cox will face new father Darren Jolly, and how big of an impact, positive or negative the arrival of Jolly's first daughter has on the Swans big man remains to be seen.
Both ruckman are evenly matched in terms of hitouts, with Jolly averaging 25 per game compared to Cox's 20.
However, it is the Eagles ruckman's ability around the ground as another midfielder, averaging over 18 possessions a game compared to Jolly's eight touches that would be of concern.
There are plenty of intriguing battles in the midfield, but none more so than the likely match-up of Eagles skipper Chris Judd and dual Brownlow medallist Adam Goodes.
The star duo lined up on each other in round 15, with Judd slightly getting the honours in the eyes of the umpires with three votes with Goodes getting the two.
Will coach Paul Roos back his star in, or will Luke Ablett be given first choice of tagging the Eagles gun.
The latter seems to be the obvious option, as the Swans can't afford to go into a shootout against the much vaunted West Coast midfield.
Jarrad McVeigh, who didn't play in last year's grand final should take former skipper Ben Cousins after restricting the 2005 Brownlow medallist to 19 possessions-well below his season average of 25.
Tough midfielder Daniel Kerr looms as the X-factor in today's grand final.
Kerr hasn't played against the Swans this year and struggled in last year's grand final with injury.
The 23-year-old illustrated his importance to the side in the past fortnight, collecting 29 and 25 possessions respectively.
There has been speculation that Kerr might not take his place in the side, after leaving the MCG early yesterday but according to club officials he is just being kept fresh after suffering a calf injury against Brisbane over a month ago and you would expect him to take his place in the 22.
Fellow tough-nut and Swans co-captain Brett Kirk appears to be the obvious choice to be assigned the task of minding Kerr in another intriguing midfield match-up.
This year's grand final will be won or lost between the Eagles midfield which has no peer in the competition up against the Swans potent forward line.
The Sydney forwards have been in devastating form in their past two outings, and this was no more evident than against the Dockers with Barry Hall, Michael O'Loughlin and the much-improved Ryan O'Keefe combining for 14 of their sides 19 goals.
All-Australian full-back Darren Glass will line-up on Hall, while you would expect Adam Hunter to take the mercurial O'Loughlin should he start back.
The versatile Daniel Chick could be another option for Worsfold should he opt to start Hunter forward.
Logic suggests Hunter will start back, and attempt to run O'Loughlin off his feet in a similiar vein to what he did to Western Bulldogs veteran Chris Grant a fortnight ago.
How well Glass and Hunter do in quelling the influence of Hall and O'Loughlin will be crucial to determining the outcome.
The West Coast defenders lacked any support the last time these two sides met, allowing the Sydney forwards to run into space as Hall and O'Loughlin combined for nine of their sides 13 goals.
The MCG is shorter than Subiaco Oval, and I wouldn't be suprised if Worsfold opts to use Wirrapanda or veteran Drew Banfield as a loose man in defence to give support to Glass.
While Hall and O'Loughlin get the bulk of the attention, West Coast need to be mindful of O'Keefe.
Adam Selwood looks to be the likely match-up for O'Keefe, having done a servicable job on Brad Johnson two weeks ago.
However, if coach Paul Roos opts to push the All-Australian forward into the goal square, Selwood could find himself wanting after being beaten by Brett Burton last Saturday.
The Swans are the masters of stoppages, and will attempt to shut down the run of the West Coast midfield and rely on the power forwards to kick them a winning score.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have adopted the spirit of Barassi in recent times.
Since round 17 West Coast have won seven matches, averaging 196 handballs.
In the two games they have lost in that period they have averaged 139 handballs, with their lowest total coming against the Swans.
Put simply the Eagles will attempt to run Sydney off their feet and break the game open and allow the likes of Lynch and Hansen to lead into space in front of goal.
If history is anything to go by, matches between these two sides go down to the last minute, with their past four encounters having been decided by a combined total of 11 points.
Today's grand final promises to be another classic enounter.
However, West Coast are a vastly improved side on the 2005 version, with the addition of Lynch up forward and Kerr to play a bigger role coupled with the heartbreak of last year's four-point loss the Eagles should just get over the line in a classic. West Coast by 8 points.
SYDNEY
B: Richards, Barry, Malceski
HB: Kennelly, Roberts-Thomson, C.Bolton
C: Buchanan, Kirk, Ablett
HF: O'Keefe, O'Loughlin, J.Bolton
F: Schneider, Hall, Fosdike
FOLL: Jolly, Goodes, McVeigh
I/C: Mathews, N.Davis, Dempster, Doyle
EMG: Spriggs, Bevan, Vogels
IN: -
OUT: -
WEST COAST
B: Wirrpanda, Glass, Selwood
HB: Waters, Hunter, B.Jones
C: A.Embley, Cousins, Braun
HF: Chick, Hansen, Stenglein
F: Armstrong, Lynch, Seaby
FOLL: Cox, Judd, Kerr
I/C: Banfield, Butler, Fletcher, R.Jones
EMG: Graham, Rosa, Staker
IN: Wirrpanda
OUT: Graham
Field umpires: Allen, Goldspink, Vozzo
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